Three Main Themes: My trading over the past few months has been in line with three main themes: 1) US interest rates had been too low for too long and were going up, probably more than the market was pricing and definitely more than interest rates in other countries, 2) the US Dollar got too low and would start rising and, 3) stock markets got too high and would have at least a correctio

The Commitments of Traders data recently showed that speculators were holding a “record sized” short position in silver futures. This fact had everyone forecasting an "inevitable" short squeeze that would cause a huge upside rip in silver prices as speculative shorts ran for cover.

The US Dollar surged higher again this week as American interest rates continued to rise. The 2 year US Treasury yield is at 10 year highs...the 10 year Treasury yield hit 7 year highs (3.04%) mid-week before dropping back below 3% by Friday.

From the desk of Victor Adair

The Kenny Rogers school of risk management: “You’ve got know when to hold’em, know when to fold’em...know when to walk away, know when to run.” Song Here

The stock market fell this week when Trump threatened China with $50 Billion in tariffs...and when China  retaliated with $50 Billion in tariffs of their own Trump raised the ante another $100 Billion...and the stock market fell harder!

From the Desk of Victor Adair

My short term trading:

I started this week with short positions in CAD, Gold and the S+P. I took profits on the short CAD when it started to rally late Tuesday on news that the US was “softening” its NAFTA position on auto parts. I liquidated my gold position for a small loss on Wednesday when spot gold traded above $1325 and I remain short the S+P with a combination of option positions.

I started this week with a clean slate (I was skiing at Whistler last week and didn’t want any open positions) but I had a list of trades that I hoped to make if the opportunity presented itself.

The US stock market was a great barometer of risk appetite this week. The DJIA rallied to 3 week highs on Monday but began falling early Tuesday morning (Powell testimony) and was down nearly 1,600 points at Friday’s lows.