Stock markets around the world tumbled this week. The DJIA touched new All Time Highs last week (Oct 3) but was down over 2000 points at this week’s lows. In just a few days the DJIA gave back all of the gains made since July. Trading volumes on the week were the largest since the DJIA suffered a dramatic tumble the first week of February.
Interest rates surged higher this week with nominal and real yields on the US 10 year treasury hitting 7 year highs. Bond prices tumbled, the US Dollar (USD) rallied and global stock markets fell as a “shakeout” hit speculative excesses across markets. Market sentiment quickly turned from “risk on” to “risk off.”
“Risk On” is the prevailing market mood and it’s been showing up everywhere:
Trade Wars with China: Bloomberg reported mid-day Friday that Trump had instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200B more of Chinese products. Market reaction was surprisingly muted. US stocks fell back (a bit) and the US Dollar rallied (a bit) on the news.
Emerging Markets, which have borrowed trillions of US Dollars, have been in the spotlight with some EM currencies down hard. For the past few months I have referred to the weakness in 2nd and 3rd tier currencies as the “stealth strength” of the US Dollar.
Contagion risk inspired a sharp swing to “risk off” across asset classes this week. The US Dollar Index (USDX) surged to 14 month highs while the “stealth strength” of the US Dollar against 2nd and 3rd tier currencies was spectacular.
Summer doldrums...low volume choppy price action with the occasional headline driven flurry of activity. I was away late last week for a family event, started this week flat, did a little in-and-out trading and ended the week flat. I’m expecting some serious market moves once we get into September so I’m watching several markets now for possible foreshadowing clues.
Trump “is not happy” with the Fed raising interest rates...claiming that rising rates hurt the American economy and cause the US Dollar to rise...that a rising US Dollar makes America less competitive. My good friend Dr.
My trading this week: I started the week flat...waiting for good risk/reward setups to develop. On Wednesday I shorted CAD when it rallied on the Bank of Canada interest rate increase, shorted WTI when it failed to rally on a huge American inventory draw down and shorted EUR as it reversed from Tuesday’s rally.
What I’m doing: I started this week long CAD and AUD against the USD. I was expecting the USD to correct after strong gains the past couple of months. I covered my positions Friday after the employment reports as the USD fell to 3 week lows and CAD rallied nearly 2 cents from the 1 year lows made June 27.