Our base case has been that all of the central bank and government stimulus would not prevent pervasive global demand destruction as the virus continued to spread...that the stimulus inspired “risk on” trade in financial markets would “roll over” once the divergence between the real economy and the financial markets got too wide.
Latest Trading Desk Notes
I trade futures and options for my own account. My initial time horizon for a trade is usually a few days to a few weeks. Sometimes, if my view of the market is working I will maintain a position for months. I believe net profits over time come from disciplined risk management...not from having a great crystal ball.
Markets currently seem to be highly correlated into a simple “risk on / risk off” dichotomy...with the emini S+P futures leading the way while other markets follow. If the spuz is bid then WTI catches a bid while the USD and bonds are offered...and vice versa.